Garnaut’s draft report on climate change

Last week, Professor Ross Garnaut released his draft report on climate change and its impacts on the Australian economy. The report provides details of the proposed Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), which is due to be implemented by 2010.

The report concluded that Australia has much to lose – because it is so dry, it will be hit worse by climate change than other developing countries; and it will most likely see the destruction of the Great Barrier Reef. The situation requires a global agreement, including China — but it will happen only if rich countries lead the way. Australia has to be part of that.

Some main findings of the report are:

• By 2050, unmitigated climate change would mean major declines in agricultural production across much of Australia, including a 50 per cent reduction in irrigated agriculture in the Murray-Darling Basin. Garnaut’s solution for this is to reduce greenhouse gas levels by 90% by mid-century.
• By 2100, irrigated agriculture in the Murray Darling Basin would decline by 92 per cent.
• Early economic modelling results of readily measurable unmitigated climate change for middle of the road outcomes on temperatures and decline in rainfall indicate that climate change would wipe off around 4.8 per cent of Australia’s projected GDP, around 5.4 per cent of projected household consumption, and 7.8 per cent from real wages by 2100 (see .
• Business must help tackle climate change by reducing emissions (see http://business.theage.com.au/business-must-tackle-climate-change-20080706-32k1.html)
• The cheapest way to tackle climate change is to set up an emissions trading system quickly, and on the widest possible front — including petrol. Excluding petrol, by definition, will cost us even more in some other area.

The final Garnaut report will be released in September.

For more information, or to read the full report, please visit http://www.garnautreview.org.au/domino/Web_Notes/Garnaut/garnautweb.nsf